First, there are a few things that could already be slowing down dramatic changes in SERPs, regardless of the veracity of this study:
A slow rollout means that changes to the SERPs will miss the natural ranking fluctuations we are already seeing.
Google can seed URLs found via mobile or desktop into its respective crawler, thus limiting index divergence. (This is a big one!)
Google, for link purposes, may choose to consider the aggregate of both mobile and desktop crawls, not counting one to the exclusion of the other.
Second, relationships between domains may be less affected by other index metrics. What is the probability that the relationship between domain X and domain Y (more or less links) is the same australia number data both mobile and desktop-based indexes? If the relationships remain the same, the impact on SERPs will be limited. We will call this relationship “directional consistency.”
I took a sample of domain pairs from the mobile index and compared their relationships (more or less links) to their performance in the desktop index. Did the former have more links than the latter in both mobile and desktop? Or did they perform differently?
It turns out that the indexes were quite close in terms of directional consistency. This means that while the overall link graphs were quite different, when you randomly compare one domain to another, they were consistent in terms of direction in both datasets. About 88% of the domains maintained directional consistency across indexes. This test was only run comparing mobile index domains to desktop index domains. Future research could look for an inverse relationship.
To complete this part of the study,
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